26 April 2006

Reading the runes

If you look at my subscription stats - and I do - you need to gain a sense of perspective by applying a range of different time bases. What do I mean:
  • 7 days
  • a month
  • a quarter
  • all time
Analysis of a single time base in isolation risks problems in interpretation through lack of context.

At one time I worked in a physical trading environment - metals and chemicals - backwardation, contango, butterfly spreads - a language of its own. There were analysts there called chartists who would plot the random walk and attempt to see 'fundamentals' in the shapes on the chart.

So how are my subscription stats today? Well, I would tell you, except it would take a while - the good news is that viewed over the 1 month and the all-time series they look pretty good with steady growth. The last 7 days looks relatively flat, but over a longer time base, that looks more like a random walk. That said, today's figure is:
  • 28% higher than the 7 day average
  • 50% higher than the 30 day average
  • 80% higher than the all-time average

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